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クルーグマンは、人民元切り上げの拙速な実現を危惧している。
果たして、実際に中国がアメリカの圧力に呼応して人民元レート見直しに応じたらばいったいどうなるのか──？　こう問いかけるクルーグマンの予想の先には、アメリカの経済破綻の綿密なシナリオすら描かれてある。中国からの安価な財政ローン源が利用できなくなったら、まずアメリカ経済は窒息する、国内の利子は上昇、家屋資産バブルは崩壊、建設業の雇用と消費意欲も急落するのは目に見えている──と。

Here's how the U.S.-China economic relationship currently works:

Money is pouring into China, both because of its rapidly rising trade surplus and because of investments by Western and Japanese companies. Normally, this inflow of funds would be self-correcting: both China's trade surplus and the foreign investment pouring in would push up the value of the yuan, China's currency, making China's exports less competitive and shrinking its trade surplus.

But the Chinese government, unwilling to let that happen, has kept the yuan down by shipping the incoming funds right back out again, buying huge quantities of dollar assets - about $200 billion worth in 2004, and possibly as much as $300 billion worth this year. This is economically perverse: China, a poor country where capital is still scarce by Western standards, is lending vast sums at low interest rates to the United States. （May 20, 2005　The Chinese Connection　By PAUL KRUGMAN）