:経済停滞

日本よりはまだ勢いがあるかに見える韓国経済だが、The Economistは手痛い論評を韓国の経済政策に対して下している。韓国経済はあいかわらず、mercantilist foreign-exchange policies from the 1970sをコピーし続けている、つまり変化に柔軟に適応することなく、外貨準備高を通じての金融政策・貿易政策にたよるばかりだと言うのだ。

• The core problem is that South Korea, despite its skilled workforce and large middle class, has not yet developed a strong and diverse local economy.
• Instead, policies have been skewed towards boosting exports, which benefit a few giant conglomerates, in ways that stifle domestic demand.
• So as the won has risen by 15% over the past year (see chart), partly in anticipation of a revaluation of the Chinese yuan, and as demand for electronics and other exports has waned, the economy has had little else to fall back on.

Source:High tech, low growth　Jun 9th 2005

なぜこれほど強迫的なほどにBank of Koreaは統制に取り付かれているのだろうか？記事は次の二点を指摘する：

• The country still maintains controls on capital outflows, requiring South Koreans to get permission for most transfers greater than 10m won ($10,000).
• The central bank's other fear is that cutting interest rates will spur property-price inflation. This also seems at odds with the state of the economy. Domestic demand could use a boost—in particular, consumers are still understandably reluctant to take on fresh debt. If lower interest rates did manage to boost home prices, people might feel richer and spend more.
  • Some economists believe that the central bankers are afraid to let home prices rise because it is inconsistent with South Korea's egalitarian bent. “It is almost as if the Bank of Korea is part of the Roh administration,” says one private-sector economist.

キャピタルフライトと資産価格の暴騰をおそれるあまり、利子率をさげることができずにいる韓国経済。政権の意向と銀行の施策が食い違うことがあるのが健全だと言うThe Economist誌の前提は必ずしも１００％正しいわけではないが、少なくとも、政権はどのような金融・経済政策をとろうとしているのかを説明する時期にきているのかもしれない。
高度な技術力と市場競争力にもかかわらず、安値に低迷している韓国の株価を、コリア・ディスカウントと言うのだそうだ（日経新聞より）。以前のディスカウント要因は北朝鮮の存在であったが、いまのままでは韓国に内在する経済政策が民間の足を引っ張るかたちになりかねない。